China’s CO2 emissions plateau as renewable energy drives shift

By Al Mayadeen English
Source: News websites
Today 10:28

New analysis shows China’s CO2 emissions have remained flat for 18 months amid record growth in renewable energy.

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Wind turbines dot the coastline along a giant solar farm near Weifang in eastern China's Shandong province on March 22, 2024. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)

China’s CO2 emissions have remained flat or declined over the past 18 months, according to a new analysis, offering renewed optimism that the world’s top emitter may have reached its peak ahead of schedule.

The report, by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (Crea) for Carbon Brief, shows that despite rising electricity demand, China managed to stabilize emissions largely due to rapid investment in renewable energy.

In the third quarter of 2025 alone, solar and wind power generation rose by 46% and 11%, respectively. China added 240GW of solar capacity and 61GW of wind capacity in the first nine months of the year, putting it on track to break renewable energy records once again in 2025.

Last year, China installed 333GW of solar power, more than the rest of the world combined, reinforcing its dominance in renewable energy deployment.

Key sectors show declines in carbon output

The analysis notes that flat China CO2 emissions in the third quarter were also supported by declines in traditionally high-emitting sectors. The travel, cement, and steel industries all saw reduced carbon output.

Notably, emissions from oil consumption in the transport sector fell by 5%. However, this was partially offset by a 10% rise in emissions from chemical production, particularly plastics, reflecting a complex and uneven decarbonization landscape across the Chinese economy.

China has pledged to reach peak carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. However, with emissions stabilizing now, experts suggest the country could meet the first of these climate targets well in advance.

In September, China announced updated goals to cut overall greenhouse gas emissions by 7% to 10% from peak levels by 2035. While experts argue that these targets fall short of what is needed to avoid global climate catastrophe, analysts point to China’s history of exceeding its own climate expectations.

Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute, described the targets as “a baseline, not a ceiling.”

China’s emissions trend and the road to 2030 goals

Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at Crea, noted that a modest increase in China's CO2 emissions for 2025 as a whole remains possible, depending on fourth-quarter trends. Still, if past patterns hold, where summer months see the highest energy use, then 2025 could mark the first full-year drop in emissions.

However, China is not on track to meet its 2020–2025 goal for reducing carbon intensity (CO2 emissions per unit of GDP). Achieving the broader 2030 objective of a 65% reduction in carbon intensity from 2005 levels will require sharper cuts moving forward.

Global response at Cop30 and China’s climate diplomacy

The data comes as global leaders convene in Brazil for COP30, amid growing urgency around the climate crisis. Neither Chinese President Xi Jinping nor US President Donald Trump attended the summit. However, China's delegation remains active in negotiations.

Andre Correa do Lago, Brazil’s COP30 president, praised China’s progress: “China is coming up with solutions that are for everyone, not just China ... Solar panels are cheaper, they’re so competitive [compared with fossil fuel energy] that they are everywhere now. If you’re thinking of climate change, this is good.”

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres recently warned that failure to curb global warming would represent a “moral failure and deadly negligence.”

China’s upcoming 15th five-year plan, covering 2026 to 2030, is expected to further prioritize low-carbon energy systems. The full text is due next year, but officials have already signaled that renewable energy in China will remain a key pillar of environmental policy.