Wildfires in 2024 were a major contributor to a record-breaking surge in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, catching scientists off guard, a recent report by The Guardian revealed. This alarming trend underscores humanity's increasing entanglement with a world beset by escalating extreme weather events.

At Hawaii's Mauna Loa observatory, CO2 levels rose by 3.6 parts per million (ppm) to reach 427ppm, a stark contrast to the pre-industrial level of 280ppm before large-scale fossil fuel combustion initiated the climate crisis. The Mauna Loa observations, known as the Keeling Curve, have tracked CO2 levels since 1958, making them the longest-running direct measurements.

The sharp rise was caused by emissions from burning forests, which compounded record-high emissions from coal, oil, and gas in 2024. The El Niño climate phenomenon also contributed by creating hotter and drier tropical conditions. Scientists noted, however, that a record increase likely would have occurred even without El Niño.

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Global average temperatures also hit a record high in 2024, exacerbating extreme heatwaves, storms, and floods that affected billions worldwide. This marked the first time the planet exceeded the 1.5°C (2.7°F) threshold agreed upon as a target under the Paris Climate Accord. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres criticized the fossil fuel industry, saying it was “pocketing profits while their products wreak havoc.”

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While the 1.5°C limit is a long-term goal meant to be measured over a decade or more, scientists stated that 2024's CO2 increase was incompatible with staying below that threshold. Although the CO2 rise in 2025 is expected to be lower at 2.3ppm due to La Niña’s vegetation growth effect, it will still exceed the level needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals.

“This is obviously bad news,” Professor Richard Betts of the UK Met Office, whose team analyzed the CO2 rise, told The Guardian.

“But even if it looks like we won’t meet the ambitious Paris goal of 1.5°C, it is still worth making every effort to limit the rise. 1.5°C is not a cliff-edge after which all is lost. There are lots of solutions already available without any new inventions. This must be extra motivation to work even harder,” Betts added.

The continuous rise in global temperatures means that every tonne of CO2 saved helps to reduce human suffering, with solutions to cut carbon already in place. However, as The Guardian reported in May, most climate experts expect the world to far exceed the 1.5°C limit, attributing the failure to political inaction.

Why it matters

Wildfires, particularly in the Americas, emitted billions of tonnes of CO2 in 2024. The climate crisis intensified the severity and frequency of these fires. Although El Niño contributed to the CO2 spike by suppressing plant growth, fires continued even after El Niño ended and in areas unaffected by it, such as Canada.

The 3.6ppm rise in CO2 during 2024 was double the 1.8ppm increase consistent with a pathway to net-zero emissions and limiting warming to 1.5°C, according to Betts. The Met Office’s initial 2024 prediction of 2.8ppm was exceeded, likely due to wildfire emissions reaching Mauna Loa.

Addressing the UN General Assembly, Guterres called attention to the human cost of climate inaction. “Who pays the price for climate destruction around the globe? Not the fossil fuel industry pocketing profits and taxpayer subsidies as their products wreak havoc,” he said. “Every day, people suffer: with their lives and livelihoods; with higher insurance premiums, volatile energy bills, and higher food prices.”

Guterres also criticized government subsidies for fossil fuels, stating, “Today, governments around the globe spend nine times more making fossil fuels cheaper than they do on making clean energy more affordable for consumers. We must tear down these walls.”