Despite $1tn annual budget, US military lagging behind
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According to Hal Brands, the Pentagon must make tough decisions between investing in future capabilities and maintaining current ones, risking escalation in nuclear conflicts if conventional forces are weakened.
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Soldiers of the LLV Monterrey from the 7th Transportation Brigade prepare to deploy to Gaza on March 12, 2024. (AP)
Vice President Kamala Harris' recent call for maintaining the world's most “lethal” military is a sentiment underscored by current global tensions, according to Hal Brands, a Bloomberg columnist.
This comes as Russia continues to gain ground in Ukraine, China is rapidly expanding its military and stockpiling resources, the DPRK is advancing its nuclear and missile capabilities, and Iran is only increasing its influence and deterrence in the Middle East.
Despite what Brands called "threats", he noted that the US faces significant challenges in modernizing its military.
The Pentagon’s effort to update its nuclear arsenal is plagued by delays and budget overruns. The modernization of bombers, land-based missiles, and submarines is lagging, and critical infrastructure is falling behind.
The US risks weakening its deterrent capability "at a time when it may need more nuclear weapons to maintain deterrence in a world in which both Russia’s and China’s forces rival its own."
Similarly, the US Navy is experiencing strain as it is decommissioning 17 logistical-support ships and is already stretched thin globally. The Navy requires more nuclear-powered attack submarines to counter China’s expansion but struggles with maintenance issues and a deteriorating shipbuilding industry.
According to Brands, the US faces worsening defense challenges as many of its Ronald Reagan-era ships, submarines, and planes approach or exceed their retirement age, with replacements not expected until the 2030s.
The military’s new strategies for high-intensity conflicts, like the Air Force's Agile Combat Employment and the Army’s Multi-Domain Operations, are still in development, leading to a firepower gap in the late 2020s when China aims to be prepared for potential action against Taiwan.
Despite the US military budget approaching $1 trillion, the actual defense spending is relatively low, at about 3% of GDP, a level not seen since World War II. Additionally, a significant portion of the budget goes to personnel costs, which may increase due to recruitment challenges. The acquisition of new capabilities is hampered by an inefficient process, and the US' global commitments spread its forces thin, unlike Russia and China, which can focus on specific regions.
The author argues that the US faces critical dilemmas in its defense strategy, struggling to balance nuclear and conventional modernization amid financial constraints. The Pentagon must make tough decisions between investing in future capabilities and maintaining current ones, risking escalation in nuclear conflicts if conventional forces are weakened. According to the National Defense Strategy Commission, the US might be unprepared for a major war, potentially facing shortages in munitions and an inability to quickly replace lost assets.
Senator Roger Wicker suggests increasing defense spending to 5% of GDP to restore strategic safety, though this would be politically challenging, requiring significant tax hikes or entitlement cuts.
Historically, the US has often increased defense spending only after facing major strategic shocks, such as those experienced during Korea, Afghanistan, Pearl Harbor, and 9/11. Brands concludes by noting that a serious discussion is needed on the costs and implications of national security to avoid future military inadequacies.
Once-dominant US aircraft carriers facing 5 major threats
US aircraft carriers have been a vital pillar of the US Navy's force for 80 years. However, their usefulness is now questioned owing to increased threats, notably from China, Russia, and the Yemeni Armed Forces (YAF), according to Brandon J. Weichert. The expensive cost and upkeep of aircraft carriers are also being scrutinized.
In an article on The National Interests' The Buzz blog, Weichert underlines how the main threats the carriers are facing are advancements in unmanned vehicles, "Carrier Killer" missiles, such as the DF-21D and DF-26B developed by some countries like China, hypersonic missiles, advanced surveillance and tracking, and nuclear threats.
The growth of automated warfare was seen in 2016 when a Chinese ship seized a US unmanned underwater drone in the South China Sea, revealing China's strong interest in US UUV technology. With China's sophisticated high-tech industry, competition for autonomous underwater drones is increasing, ushering in a new technical era in naval combat.
According to Weichert's article in The National Interest, underwater drones can be used to gather data on enemy fleets, conduct real-time meteorological inspections, and deliver explosives for targeted strikes.
The threat posed by unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs) is expanding, particularly in areas such as the Red Sea, where the Yemeni Armed Forces (YAF) have deployed them.
Read more: What threats are the once-dominant US aircraft carriers facing?
