In a report published by Responsible Statecraft on Friday, it is reported that after years of friction between Egypt and Iran, the two appear to be entering a new chapter in their relations. News broke about Tehran and Cairo's plans to exchange ambassadors later this year and arrange a meeting between their presidents. 

As the region shapes new bilateral relations, regional dynamics, and national interests, it seems like there could be a Tehran-Cairo rapprochement soon. “There have been many efforts in the past to normalize relations between Cairo and Tehran, but they have all failed for a variety of reasons,” according to Trita Parsi, the Quincy Institute’s executive vice president and an expert on Iranian diplomacy.

“This time around, however, because of the geopolitical shifts in the region, the cost of maintaining a state of non-normalization is much higher for both sides, while the benefits are greater.”

The recent rapprochement between Saudi Arabia the UAE and Iran make the predicted new rapprochement more probable. “Egypt is aligned with [Saudi Arabia and the UAE] to a large extent. The fact that the Gulf states are engaging Iran makes it easier for [Egyptian President Abdel Fattah] el-Sisi to go in that same direction,” explained Kenneth Katzman, a Senior Fellow at the Soufan Center, in an interview with Responsible Statecraft.

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Khalil Alanani, a Senior Fellow at the Arab Center Washington, affirmed that the Saudi-Iran détente has “reverberated across the region and created an atmosphere of optimism for de-escalating the conflicts in the region never seen in the past decade."

“The normalization between Saudi Arabia and Iran removes any ‘Gulf’ veto, if there’s such [a] thing, on Sisi’s regime to normalize ties with Tehran. Or at least, Sisi can use it as a pretext to justify normalizing relations with Tehran.”

Alanani added that the potential détente has also been fueled by other geopolitical factors, such as the war in Ukraine, as well as Moscow and Beijing’s growing influence in the Middle East, saying that “[Egypt and Iran] have strong relations with Russia and China, and the prospects of achieving political, economic, and geostrategic gains are massive."

Egypt and Iran’s National Interests

By normalizing relations, Egypt attempts to persuade Iran to be a moderating influence over Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza. “Each time 'Israel' and the Gaza 'militants' clash, the potential for escalation grows,” Katzman said, adding that "That would be the main thrust of Egypt’s motivation for this potential rapprochement [with Iran].”

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For its part, Iran wants to improve its relationships with more countries in the Middle East, which explains its plans to improve ties with Cairo, which could help Iran further reduce its relative isolation in the region. That said, friendly ties with Egypt could benefit the Iranians when countering the US and Israeli efforts to rally Arab nations against the Islamic Republic, while also making it easier for Tehran to argue that it should not be treated like a “rogue” actor.

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“Ever since the Middle Eastern states fully realized that the U.S. was no longer in a position to maintain its military hegemony over the region, we have seen a flourishing of intra-regional diplomacy since sustaining conflicts became too costly while resolving tensions through diplomacy emerged as the optimal policy for most states,” explained Parsi.

“The region is experiencing a new-found sense of confidence as it rediscovers its own agency. A new balance for the region may be settled in the coming months, and both Egypt and Iran benefit from maximizing their maneuverability by being on talking terms.”

Oman's diplomacy 

The Gulf Cooperation Council’s most geopolitically balanced member, Oman, has joined Iraq in diplomatic efforts to facilitate an Egyptian-Iranian rapprochement. In fact, this is not the first time in which the Omanis have been playing this bridging role between Egypt and Iran. “Oman does have consistent relations with Tehran. That certainly gives them weight with Cairo to bring Tehran into an agreement with Cairo,” said Katzman.

It is worth mentioning that in the final quarter of the 20th century, Oman served as a reliable friend to both Egypt and Iran when much of the Arab world shunned both countries.

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Sultan Haitham's visit to both Egypt and Iran highlighted the importance the Omani leadership attaches to rapprochement between the two countries. During the Sultan’s visit to Iran, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was quoted as saying that he would welcome restored diplomatic ties with Egypt.

During 2023, Oman has been busy serving as a diplomatic bridge between different state and non-state actors in the region. The capital has made significant progress with Saudi Arabia's peace with Yemen; it contributed to the Saudi-Iranian diplomatic agreement; and it has also been active in mediation efforts between long-time adversaries Bahrain and Iran.

The root of tense Tehran-Cairo ties 

Years back, on October 6, 1981, Egyptians were enjoying the eighth anniversary of Operation Badr, which marked the start of the 1973 Arab-Israeli war, with a victory parade in Cairo. 

However, a cell in the military, led by Lieutenant Khalid Islambouli assassinated Egyptian President Anwar Sadat in a protest of the 1978 Camp David Accords. He did so to protest Egypt's normalization with "Israel," which essentially removed Egypt from the Palestinian cause.

He was then executed the following year. Iran’s new revolution government, led by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, declared Islambouli a martyr. That said, ever since Sadat’s assassination, the relationship between Cairo and Tehran has been troubled albeit with occasional periods of détente.