With the second round of the French parliamentary elections set to commence on Sunday, opinion polls reveal that unless the National Rally (RN) party wins enough seats to form its first post-World War II government, a hung parliament may be assumed due to an unclear majority.

Reuters news agency published an explainer on Friday addressing the parliamentary elections’ frequently asked questions.

The voting system

Parliamentary elections take place every five years, utilizing a two-round voting system. The elections determine the members of Parliament to form the total 577 constituencies of the National Assembly, the lower house of the French Parliament.

Marine Le Pen’s far-right RN party and its allies filled 39 of the 76 elected seats in the first round of the elections, leaving 501 seats remaining.

Sunday’s voting ends at 6 pm local time in towns and small cities and 8 pm in big cities. According to Reuters, pollsters will provide an initial projection of the election outcome at 8 pm, which is often a reliable indication since they are based on partial results from polling stations that closed earlier.

Vote counting is generally quick. However, given the potential tight results with an unclear majority, the final results may only be announced on Monday morning.

A potential transition of power

The French parliamentary elections consist of a diverse political spectrum. This is represented by the right-wing political party RN, the left-wing New Popular Front, and President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist coalition.

The New Popular Front and Macron-supporting centrist parties withdrew over 200 candidates to increase the chances of the anti-RN parties to compete with the right-wing party in their districts. Although this is a strategic method to hinder the RN from securing seats, there is the potential outcome of a hung parliament, which may lead to political uncertainty.

Based on the first round of the elections, the RN and its allies appear to be likely to obtain majority seats. However, they will need to win 289 seats to secure an absolute majority. 

Should the right-wing parties win the absolute majority seats, they will integrate their Eurosceptic ideologies and anti-immigration policies with RN leader Jordan Bardella as the new prime minister. However, as president, Macron has the right to veto the nomination of a potential prime minister if he deems them unfit for the position.

A hung parliament?

Prime Minister Gabriel Attal said that if the outcome of the elections is a hung parliament, the political parties from the differing political spectrums could form ad hoc alliances to vote for a new parliament through individual pieces of legislation.

According to the constitution, no new parliamentary election can be held for another year. Therefore, if the three political groups are unable to form a government or coalition deal, France would risk political paralysis due to the establishment of a caretaker government that lacks legislation.