How Zelensky's counteroffensive is dividing Ukrainian officials
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Moscow's multi-layered defense network has yet to fail six weeks into the operation.
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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during an address in Kiev, Ukraine, on March 7, 2022 (AP)
According to Newsweek, Ukraine's lack of meaningful progress only leaves Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky with two options, either he declares political defeat or conducts an "all-in" offensive and risks a massive failure.
Sources with inside knowledge told Newsweek that there were "definitely differences among Ukrainian leadership" regarding how to proceed militarily.
Some want to build on Kiev's limited victories and prepare for a Russian attack in the fall and winter, while others, notably commander-in-chief General Valery Zaluzhnyi, want to press forward, with Ukrainian military officials dismissing criticism as impatient and misguided.
Read next: Ukraine's counteroffensive was doomed from the start and the US knew
"On the military side, you have Zaluzhnyi and others—but obviously he's in command—who want to keep pushing. There are some questions on the political side about whether that makes the most sense right now. Or does it make sense to consolidate where possible in some areas, and relieve pressure on supply lines and stockpiles?" the source added.
The source also explained a sense of unhappiness and misguidance felt by government officials from the Ukrainian military regarding which way the counteroffensive would play out.
Nevertheless, a Defense Ministry spokesperson for Ukraine claimed that rumors of division were nothing more than a supposed Russian propaganda tactic.
The Ukrainian effort has been recently touted in many publications as not only slow-moving but doomed to fail. An anonymous Western diplomat told CNN last week that "Russians have a number of defensive lines and they[Ukrainians] haven't really gone through the first line."
Ukraine's failed counteroffensive has been blamed on everything from shrubbery to lack of air power, but the former Defense Minister told Newsweek that there are "a lot of misconceptions about this counteroffensive...What Ukraine is doing right now is basically trying to decrease the ability of the Russians to defend themselves. It's essentially a long preparation for more active movement."
US Senator Tommy Tuberville (R-AL) told Fox News last week that Ukraine looks like "a junior high team playing a college team...They can't win."
Tuberville's perception regarding the war is being mirrored in Ukraine, according to sources. Although Zelensky has pledged not to waste Ukrainian lives, Kiev is likely to have had heavy casualties so far.
Stopping without a meaningful breakthrough might be interpreted as a catastrophic setback in Russia and among Western supporters, heightening fears that Ukraine's objective of re-capturing all land according to its 1991 boundaries is unduly unrealistic.
However, persisting and failing may have the same result, while also providing Ukrainian opponents with another opportunity to portray Zelensky and his team as obstinate, untrustworthy partners.
The source close to the Ukrainian government highlighted that it was crucial for Kiev to succeed in demonstrating that it is not an "irrational actor".
According to James Roger, "There's a risk here that there's either a very significant setback so that the Ukrainians have very little left to fight with, or there's a grinding series of setbacks," both meaning that Ukraine would be left at a disadvantage.
West rethinking plan to root for Ukrainian counteroffensive
While Ukrainian officials blame the West's over-positive hopes for the counteroffensive against Russia, Ukraine is also to blame for its failing retaliation, as reported by Politico.
Chief of Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence Kyrylo Budanov, alongside other officials, continues to talk about the coming “decisive battle” while he continues to brush off requests from Ukraine’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs to ease on having high hopes.
On his part, Zelensky was quick to jump the gun to keep Western arms and cash flowing while building expectations.
Ukraine's failure can also be attributed to its inability to understand that the Russian army was correcting course by learning from its blunders fast. Weeks before the counteroffensive, Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds, two of the war’s strong military analysts from the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), issued a warning about potential mistakes by detailing evidence of Russia’s learning curve, its tactics, and improved artillery targeting. They also highlighted the “speed with which Russian infantry dig, and the scale at which they improve their fighting positions.”
On July 31, American political scientist John Mearsheimer said in an interview transcribed by The Grayzone that he was surprised at the West's encouragement for the Ukrainians' counteroffensive, which he compared to a suicide attack that would lead to counterproductive results.
