Israeli missile defense at risk of collapse in coming days: WaPo

By Al Mayadeen English
Source: The Washington Post
Today 04:12
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A Washington Post report reveals that "Israel’s" missile defense could fail within days under sustained Iranian attacks, as costs skyrocket and interceptor supplies dwindle.

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Israeli occupation soldiers demonstrate the operation of the Arrow air defense system at the Palmachim base on the coast of occupied Palestine, on November 7, 2002. (AP)

A long war of attrition between "Israel" and Iran may not be sustainable for Tel Aviv, according to a new report by The Washington Post, which highlights mounting costs and dwindling interceptor supplies as critical vulnerabilities in "Israel’s" air defense network.

The report, published Monday, cites assessments from US and Israeli intelligence officials indicating that without urgent resupply or direct US military intervention, "Israel" may only be able to sustain its current level of missile defense for another 10 to 12 days.

“They will need to select what they want to intercept,” one source briefed on the matter said. “The system is already overwhelmed.”

The Post’s analysis aligns with recent warnings by military-focused open-source intelligence (OSINT) account @METT_Project, which projected that Iran’s sustained ballistic missile salvos could begin heavily breaching "Israel’s" multi-layered missile shield around Day 18 of the war. That projection, based on interceptor usage rates and known inventories, suggested that daily missile penetrations would increase significantly as the Israeli grid begins to ration munitions and prioritize critical zones.

High cost of BMD necessitates quick end to war

The economic strain of defending against Iran’s heavy missile barrages is also becoming untenable. According to The Marker, an Israeli financial outlet, the cost of operating missile defense systems has soared to approximately one billion shekels—about $285 million—per night. "Israel’s" reliance on high-end systems like the Arrow-2 and Arrow-3, whose interceptors cost roughly $3 million apiece, has raised alarms over the sustainability of its current escalation.

Why can't the Iron Dome defend against Iran's missiles?

The Israeli layered air defense system consists of several high-performance missiles, such as the Arrow line of interceptors and the David's Sling missiles, as well as cheaper Iron Dome/Tamir missiles optimized for taking down rocket artillery.

A sign of strain on air defense capabilities appeared on Tuesday morning as an attempt to thwart an Iranian attack on a site belonging to the Israeli Military Intelligence Directorate (Aman) failed. In this exchange, Tamir interceptors were launched at the incoming missiles as a last ditch attempt to prevent a direct hit on Aman assets.

“It’s like shooting a 9-millimeter pistol at a freight train,” said Israeli strategic analyst Efraim Inbar, describing the mismatch between cheaper, widely deployed Iron Dome interceptors and the supersonic ballistic missiles used by Iran. While Iron Dome is optimized for short-range rocket threats, such as those from Gaza, it is virtually ineffective against long-range Iranian missiles that travel through the upper atmosphere.

The Washington Post report adds that US officials are closely monitoring the pace of Iran’s strikes and the strain on Israeli systems. As Iranian salvos continue, Israeli commanders are increasingly forced to make difficult decisions about which targets to protect, a scenario that could soon expose strategic infrastructure and population centers to successful hits.