New Zealand poll: National party ahead of the Arden-led Labour party

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A new poll conducted by 1News Kantar Public polls on August 8 revealed that support for the Labour party has dropped to 33% as New Zealand's PM Jacinda Ardern recorded her lowest ratings as the most popular PM. According to the current polls, it appears unlikely that Ardern would be re-elected for a second term. In turn, this predicts that New Zealand’s right-leaning coalition has adequate support to form a government.

The poll is conducted at a time when the cost of living in NZ mounted. This has dropped her popularity by three points, however, the PM (30%) is still ahead of the National party's Chris Luxon (20%).

On the other hand, the center-right party, National, is ahead of the Ardern-led Labour Party, with a difference of 37% to 33% to the National party. Together, National and its longtime ally, the libertarian-right Act party, which has 11% of the vote, would have enough seats to establish a majority government.

The Labour party, on the other hand, would not be able to form a majority if it allied with its longtime allies, the Greens, with only 9% of the vote. Te Pti Mori, its second prospective coalition partner, received only 2% of the vote, which remained insufficient to tip the scales in favor of the left.

As a result of Act's 4% point increase, the odds are looking better for the right bloc. Te Pti Mori, which had ruled out cooperating with a coalition led by the National-Act, held the balance of power according to prior Kantar surveys.

The poll results of 1News denote a significant fall from the Labour’s last election, where the party, sustained by the success of its pandemic management and Ardern’s popularity, was capable of ruling alone without assistance from any coalition.

Ardern's government has not lost yet, as the elections remain over a year away. However, the heavy lifting work must begin as soon as possible as the cost of living continues to increase and the economic outlook remains grim.

Ardern told TVNZ that despite the reflected tough economic times in NZ and abroad, “New Zealand has advantages as well. I do look to those causes of optimism – low unemployment, low relative debt, and the fact that we have our borders, and tourism coming back. Those things will give a boost – a much-needed boost to us – going forward."

Economic factors are probably behind the government's poor polling. The Kantar survey also revealed that most New Zealanders were pessimistic about the economy, with 49% of respondents saying it would become worse over the next year, as opposed to 26% who believed it would get better and 25% who believed it would remain stagnant.

Inflation in New Zealand is at 7.3%, the highest level in 32 years. Although the country's sky-high home values have started declining, rising mortgage interest rates and expensive building materials mean that new purchasers will continue to find it difficult to enter the market.

Earlier in June, French President Emmanuel Macron also lost his majority parliament in a surprise rise of the right across the nation. In other words, French President Emmanuel Macron and his allies were scrambling for a way out of a political impasse after losing their parliamentary majority in a surprise defeat for the president and his reform proposals.

Furthermore, in July, polls showed that Giorgia Meloni's Brothers of Italy, which has neo-fascist roots, topped opinion surveys at between 23 and 25% but needs the support of allies Forza Italia, the center-right party led by former premier Silvio Berlusconi, and Matteo Salvini's anti-immigration League to form a government. This shows a general rise in the right-wing support across Europe as it struggles economically and faces a difficult winter ahead.

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