Post-ABC poll showing clear Trump lead over Biden comes under fire
A recent Washington Post-ABC poll shows Biden trailing Trump by 10 points, but pollsters warn that it is an outlier.
A recent Washington Post-ABC poll has shown Joe Biden trailing behind his predecessor, Donald Trump, by a significant 10-percentage-point margin.
This poll drew strong criticism from prominent political pollster Larry Sabato, who serves as the director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. Sabato said the pollsters themselves had cautioned that their survey was an outlier and called the decision to release it "ridiculous".
Sabato expressed his disdain, saying on X, "Ignore the Washington Post–ABC poll. How could you even publish a poll so absurd on its face? Will be a lingering embarrassment for you. Just plain embarrassing – for them."
Ignore the Washington Post - ABC poll. It’s a ridiculous outlier (Trump up 10 over Biden—laughable). My question: How could you even publish a poll so absurd on its face? Will be a lingering embarrassment for you.— Larry Sabato (@LarrySabato) September 24, 2023
Nate Cohn, the chief political analyst for The New York Times, also criticized the poll, which suggested that Trump was leading Biden in the 2024 White House race. Referring to a previous Post-ABC poll in May that similarly deviated from most polling by showing Trump with a seven-point lead over Biden, Cohn said releasing consecutive "outlying" poll results is really challenging. He added that the two institutions should reevaluate their methodology or stand by it.
The Washington Post acknowledged that its survey results did not align with most other polls, which generally indicated a close and competitive race between Democratic incumbent Biden and former Republican President Trump in the 2024 election.
The newspaper stated, "The … poll shows Biden trailing Trump by 10 percentage points at this early stage in the election cycle, although the sizable margin of Trump’s lead in this survey is significantly at odds with other public polls that show the general election contest a virtual dead heat. The difference between this poll and others, as well as the unusual makeup of Trump’s and Biden’s coalitions in this survey, suggests it is probably an outlier."
Despite the criticism, one person, host Martha Raddatz, stood by the poll results, stating on Sunday's episode of ABC This Week, "Whatever caveats, whether that is an outlier, that’s a tough one to spin."
In response, former Democratic National Committee chairwoman Donna Brazile expressed her view on the show, saying the results are indeed tough, but it does not mean that "Democrats should be sitting in a panic room" over them.
It's worth noting that Trump held substantial leads in both national and key state polls for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, despite facing more than 90 criminal charges across four separate indictments related to the 2020 election, classified information retention, and hush-money payments to adult film star Stormy Daniels.
At the same time, Biden is facing multiple scandals and suspicions that members of his family have accepted up to $30 million in unlawful payments, as well as an inditement against Hunter Biden, Joe Biden's son.