Study reveals over 84,000 deaths in Gaza, far exceeding ministry toll

By Al Mayadeen English
Source: News websites
Today 00:14

An international study estimates 84,000 deaths in Gaza between October 2023 and January 2025, citing both violent and nonviolent causes.

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Palestinians pray over the bodies of people who were killed during an Israeli strike, at their funeral in Deir al-Balah, Gaza Strip, on Wednesday, June 25, 2025 (AP)

A comprehensive new study estimates that at least 75,200 Palestinians were killed in Gaza between October 2023 and January 2025 due to the Israeli war on the enclave.

This figure is nearly 40% higher than the deaths reported by the Gaza Ministry of Health during the same period.

The report, titled Violent and Nonviolent Death Tolls for the Gaza War: New Primary Evidence, presents findings from the Gaza Mortality Survey (GMS), the most extensive and scientifically grounded assessment of war-related deaths in Gaza to date.

8,540 excess nonviolent deaths

It also identifies 8,540 excess nonviolent deaths from starvation, disease, and healthcare collapse, bringing the total estimated toll to nearly 84,000.

Conducted by an international team of scholars, including Michael Spagat, Jon Pedersen, Khalil Shikaki, Michael Robbins, Eran Bendavid, Håvard Hegre, and Debarati Guha-Sapir, the study utilized data from face-to-face interviews with 2,000 randomly selected households, covering 9,729 individuals across Gaza.

The fieldwork was led by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research under extreme wartime conditions.

56.2% of violent deaths among women, children, and the elderly

The survey found that 56.2% of violent deaths were among women, children, and elderly individuals. This aligns closely with Gaza's Health Ministry figures and counters claims that civilian casualties have been exaggerated.

Instead, the study concludes that the Ministry likely undercounted total deaths, with even the lowest bound of the study's 95% confidence interval exceeding the entity's total by more than 17,000.

The research also estimated that the 8,540 deaths described as "nonviolent" would not have occurred under peacetime conditions. These were largely caused by disease, hunger, and denial of medical care, caused by the war.

The authors noted that their findings support broader human rights assessments that the war on Gaza has disproportionately affected civilians and rejected narratives that accuse the Gaza Health Ministry of inflating numbers.