The Democrat disconnect in 2024 elections: Axios
While Americans move away from Biden, the rift between Democratic institutions continues to widen.
Recent polling reveals a chasm in the Democratic Party between institutional public opinion — party leaders, lawmakers, donors, and consultants — and the actual voters who ultimately decide elections, according to Axios.
US President Joe Biden has effectively silenced internal Democratic Party criticism. However, only three postwar presidents had lower approval ratings at this point in their presidency than Biden. That said, Biden's job approval rating is 43%, according to the FiveThirtyEight polling average.
According to a Washington Post-ABC News poll conducted just before Biden's State of the Union address, nearly half (45%) of Americans had no confidence in Biden's ability to make the right decisions for the country's future.
Only 16% of those polled said they were better off financially than when Biden became president, while 41% said they were worse off, according to the poll.
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The doubts about Biden's age (80) have all but vanished from the public discourse of institutional Democrats, according to Axios. The DNC has also effectively neutralized the influence of Iowa and New Hampshire, which could have sparked an intraparty rebellion.
Biden's political standing will be heavily influenced by public perception of the economy's health. The US president used his State of the Union address to tout the economy's resilience, according to Axios, citing record-low unemployment and the fastest economic growth in 40 years.
Which #Democratic candidates are most likely to run for the 2024 Presidency? The Hill published on Sunday a list of candidates who are most likely to do so. pic.twitter.com/qiOE9ohfnQ— Al Mayadeen English (@MayadeenEnglish) November 17, 2022
However, concerns about persistent inflation remain. Only 20% of Americans rated the economy as "excellent" or "good" in a Fox News poll conducted last week.
The unpopularity of the GOP opposition, particularly former President Trump, is Biden's strongest ally.
Democrats outperformed Republicans in last year's midterm elections: whatever reservations voters had about Biden, Republican candidates were viewed as too extreme.
Read next: Poll: Biden receives 'failing grade' in leadership and management
The GOP's divisions over spending cuts and changes to Social Security and Medicare, which were highlighted in the GOP's vehement response to Biden's speech, will also serve as a useful foil for the White House in making the next election a choice rather than a referendum, according to Axios.
Biden's re-election prospects are becoming more optimistic in Washington. However, polls show that voters are pessimistic about their own economic prospects. Furthermore, a majority of Democrats want a new standard-bearer in 2024.