Concerns are rising over United States President Donald Trump’s growing military pressure on Venezuela, with analysts warning that his actions mirror the prelude to past US wars, including Iraq, and could have severe humanitarian consequences.

Farah Hassen, OtherWords columnist and policy analyst, argued in an opinion piece that the Trump administration’s recent attacks in the Caribbean, under the guise of countering drug trafficking, lack legal or factual justification and risk escalating into full-scale conflict.

US military strikes and covert operations

The US has conducted airstrikes on alleged “drug boats” near Venezuelan waters and in the East Pacific, killing at least 83 people. The United Nations has condemned these strikes as extrajudicial killings. Meanwhile, the USS Gerald R. Ford remains stationed off Venezuela’s coast, and Trump has authorized the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) to conduct covert operations within the country.

On November 29, the US president declared the airspace above and surrounding Venezuela “to be closed in its entirety,” raising concerns over a potential no-fly zone, a move that would constitute an act of war under international law without American congressional approval.

Hassen noted that the administration’s justifications echo those used by former President George W. Bush to justify the 2003 Iraq invasion, relying on unverified and easily disproven allegations.

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Allegations vs evidence

The US government claims the attacks target narcotics shipments, including fentanyl, which it has described as a “chemical weapon threat.”

However, Hassen emphasized that Venezuela is not a primary producer or international exporter of such drugs. Similarly, accusations linking Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro to criminal gangs such as the Tren de Aragua or the so-called “Cartel of the Suns” are contradicted by US intelligence assessments.

Critics point out the hypocrisy of Trump pardoning high-profile cocaine traffickers, including former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernandez, while accusing Venezuela of drug trafficking.

Historical and strategic context

Hassen highlighted that the US has long intervened in Latin America under the pretext of protecting its interests, citing past CIA-backed coups in Guatemala and Chile. Since 2005, Washington has also imposed broad economic sanctions on Venezuela, worsening living conditions and forcing millions to flee. The country holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves, a key strategic factor in US calculations, Hassen suggested.

Despite Trump’s rhetoric, polls indicate strong domestic opposition to military action. A November CBS/YouGov survey found 70 percent of Americans across party lines oppose US intervention. Hassen stressed that there is no legal basis for a war and that an escalation would inflict severe suffering on the Venezuelan people.

“Trump’s aggression against Venezuela is not about countering traffickers or promoting democracy, it is about continuing a century-long pattern of U.S. intervention in Latin America,” Hassen wrote.

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