Ukraine must prepare to lose White House: Telegraph
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Ukraine is not just battling Russia's greatest defenses, but European incoming weather and the US election politics.
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US President Joe Biden with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office of the White House on December 21, 2022, in Washington. (AP)
According to Richard Kemp, writing for The Telegraph, Ukraine is not just battling Russia's greatest defenses but also European incoming weather and US election politics.
Last week, Kemp questioned whether Ukraine will ever succeed, as it has had no meaningful breakthrough in its counteroffensive in the last six weeks.
He compared the current battle to last year's victories of Kherson and Kharkov, and emphasized that the Russian forces this time "aren't going anywhere," having mobilized their troops and prepared vast defense lines.
Read more: West clearly disappointed with Kiev counteroffensive results: Putin
Kemp wrote in The Telegraph that while it is deprived of any considerable air power, Ukraine has been forced to rely on reconnaissance in force, missiles, and artillery while exploring for gaps to take advantage of with ground forces.
He notes that Ukrainians appear to have picked the most advantageous axis of assault, from south of Zaporizhia to Melitopol, even though the Russian defense ministry Today reported that units of the Russian Vostok forces have successfully thwarted two attempts by Ukrainian troops to conduct reconnaissance-in-force in the Zaporozhye direction.
However, if they are successful in destroying the first line of Russian defense, which they have yet to achieve, "the road ahead will be very long and very bloody." He explains that they will face numerous challenges like barbed wire and minefields, plus dug-in infantry, pillboxes, machine guns, tanks, combat planes, and many more.
Kemp emphasizes that no one will be able to predict the outcome of the war, and any armored push will become stymied in a couple of weeks due to unfavorable weather conditions. This means offensive operations will have to be held until the winter arrives in November and probably next spring.
According to Kemp, a bigger problem is not the impending winter but rather the American election which he believes is certain to bode unfavorably for Kiev. Biden yearns for the war to end as the majority of Americans feel war is something to advocate against, and continued warfare will cost Biden votes, particularly if things go bad for Ukraine.
Biden’s age is already posing a risk for the Democratic party, which is currently the minority in the House of Representatives, and he faces a number of issues that contribute to his low approval ratings, including his handling of Ukraine, the dwindling economy, the pandemic response, a border crisis, and low ratings for personal qualities such as leadership, crisis management, and mental sharpness.
White House officials also dread a scenario of a complete collapse of the Kremlin if Ukraine sees some level of success, which could mean catastrophic geostrategic ramifications and global economic loss.
No F-16s for Ukraine
Kemp notes that this could also explain why the US has given Ukraine just enough military aid to achieve some notable success but not enough to defeat Putin.
An example is F-16s and long-range missiles, which would have given Ukraine a much larger strategic advantage. Another is Biden's objection to Ukraine's fast-track NATO membership.
US President Joe Biden has ruled out multiple times Ukraine's request to be provided with F-16s. When asked why he took that decision, Biden said without any further clarification: “Because we should keep them here. That’s a totally different situation.”
Read more: Ukraine sold its sovereignty for Western money, weapons, Orban says
Kemp concludes that peace negotiations are unavoidable but poorly timed. Even if Ukraine manages to retake considerable territory before any ceasefire, discussions can only provide a semblance of triumph to Russia.
On his part, Ukrainian General Sergey Krivonos stated that Russian forces have a greater advantage in the war than Ukrainian forces since they possess much more sophisticated combat equipment.
In an interview for PryamiyTV, Krivonos admitted that the Russian army has remarkable experience and that its state fully provides all the needs of its army, lamenting that in Ukraine, they have "major failures" in this context.
In June, Ukraine claimed its forces were moving along in its counteroffensive but were battling to counter Russian air and artillery power, which was impeding their advances in the east and south.
Now is best time for Ukraine peace talks: Hungarian FM
The crisis between Moscow and Kiev cannot be settled on the battlefield, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said.
The situation for peace talks to settle the Ukrainian war will deteriorate further, Szijjarto stated in Budapest on Friday. The Foreign Minister feels that the two parties are in a better position for discussions at the moment.
Last month, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban told German tabloid Bild that a Ukrainian triumph on the battlefield would be "impossible" for Kiev and its supporters.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has expressed that Russia is all for a diplomatic solution, but Kiev and its supporters are unwilling to engage in dialogue.
