US expects Ukraine counteroffensive not to meet goals: WashPo
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The Washington Post says Ukraine is not projected to meet the goals of its counteroffensive as its war effort falters before the Russian behemoth.
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A Ukrainian soldier fires during night training in Donetsk, Donetsk People's Republic, August 17, 2023 (AP)
US intelligence expects Ukraine's counteroffensive to fail and fall short of its goals, which include reaching the city of Melitopol in the country's southeast, the Washington Post reported on Thursday, citing people familiar with the matter.
The goal of the counteroffensive was to seize the city and cut Russia's access to Crimea via land, and despite the billions of dollars put toward Kiev, it looks like it will fall a little too short of this ambitious objective.
Politico reported earlier that as Ukrainian officials blame the West's over-positive hopes for the counteroffensive against Russia, Kiev is also to blame for its failing retaliation.
Chief of Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence Kyrylo Budanov, alongside other officials, continues to talk about the coming “decisive battle” while he continues to brush off requests from Ukraine’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs to ease on having high hopes.
WashPo credited "Russia's brutal proficiency" in defending its posts through various means, including mines and trenches, with Ukraine's failure.
This assessment is likely to lead Ukraine's Western allies to start demanding results while also promoting an anti-Ukraine sentiment in these nations as heavy streams of money are poured into Kiev as it continues to fail to meet its goals.
Ukraine's failure can also be attributed to its failure to understand that the Russian army was correcting course by learning from its blunders fast.
Weeks before the counteroffensive, Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds, two of the war’s strong military analysts from the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), issued a warning about potential mistakes by detailing evidence of Russia’s learning curve, its tactics and improved artillery targeting. They also highlighted the "speed with which Russian infantry dig, and the scale at which they improve their fighting positions."
Read next: Ukraine's counteroffensive was doomed from the start and the US knew
According to the US intelligence personnel, Ukraine's forces will not be able to reach Melitopol on their 80 km (50 miles) push from Robotyne, as they will remain miles away from the city at the closest point.
Melitopol is highly important to Ukraine, as it is vital for Russia's access to Crimea, for it is home to the last road that Russia has to go to the peninsula via land. Kiev has been trying for nearly a year to cut Russia's access to its own territory, including by bombing the Kerch Bridge, but it has been met with resounding failure - or temporary victory.
In a bid to regain lost ground, Ukraine launched a much-anticipated counteroffensive in early June. However, the Russian Defense Ministry has asserted that Ukrainian forces have struggled to make advances along three specific directions: South Donetsk, Bakhmut, and Zaporizhzhia, with the latter being of primary concern.
Ukraine has been hyping its counteroffensive attack, since last year. Although the attack was intended for spring, it was moved to the summer after Ukraine blamed the delay on a lack of weapons.
Despite the fact that Ukraine's counteroffensive is moving more slowly than anticipated, Ukraine continues to reject the option of freezing the battle.
Joint military drills carried out by the US, UK, and Ukraine indicated that such losses would take place, but they expected Kiev to accept the losses as the cost of breaching Russia's fortified positions.
Moreover, renowned US investigative journalist Seymour Hersh said Thursday that the CIA had informed US Secretary of State Antony Blinken that the Ukrainian counteroffensive will not likely yield results.
This information, said Hersh, came from a US intelligence official, who stated more specifically, that "the word was getting to him [Blinken] through the Agency [CIA] that the Ukrainian offense was not going to work. It was a show by Zelensky and there were some in the administration who believed his bullshit."
Kiev has been fortifying its front, in turn, including through Stryker and Challenger units, though they have so far failed in going into territories taken over by Russia.
Foreign Policy Research Institute military analyst Rob Lee underlined that the path to Melitopol is highly challenging, with even cities closer to Ukraine's positions, such as Tokmak, being a difficult expedition for Ukraine.
"Russia has three main defensive lines there and then fortified cities after that," he said, as quoted by the Washington Post. "It's not just a question about whether Ukraine can breach one or two of them, but can they breach all three and have enough forces available after taking attrition to achieve something more significant like taking Tokmak or something beyond that."
Amid signs of a more and more faltering counteroffensive, WashPo said US officials were still open to Kiev surprising them and overcoming the odds as the balance is tipping in Moscow's favor.
"Ukraine could buck historical norms and continue the counteroffensive through the winter, when everything including keeping soldiers warm and stocked with food and ammunition becomes much more difficult," WashPo quoted a US defense official as saying.
Frontline soldiers claim that morale remains high, especially among those fully deployed and Western-trained 10th corps, who were supposed to be deployed once the main defensive lines were crossed, but were sent out sooner than expected.
Many of them displayed anger at the West's complaints regarding their slow development, such as the criticism in last month’s leaked battlefield assessment by Germany’s Bundeswehr, which criticized the Ukrainian military for not fully implementing its NATO-given training.
Some in Kiev are blaming the military weakness on a lack of air assistance, citing Western partners' unwillingness to supply F-16 fighters (though Britain has already promised to train pilots)
It seems as though the West needs to trace back to the drawing board for Spring, in case success does not happen, and yet pilots being trained on F-16s won’t even be ready until Spring, after which the US would have given up on its want to supply longer-range missiles.
Read more: US against two difficult options in Ukraine: Both are grim
