US strikes on Yemen unlikely to deter YAF, halt attacks
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Analysts believe that Ansar Allah is much more capable than it is letting on and that US strikes against it will do very little, if anything at all, to deter the group from supporting Gaza.
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Sea Viper missiles are fired in the Red Sea from the bridge of HMS Diamond on January 10, 2024. (AP)
Analysts say the airstrikes on the Yemeni Armed Forces (YAF) will do little to deter them from the Red Sea, The New York Times reported.
The US Central Command (Centcom) confirmed on Saturday that US forces carried out a strike that targeted an alleged radar site used by the Ansar Allah movement in Yemen.
Hannah Porter, a senior research officer at British company ARK Group, claimed that the YAF "hoped" to see an expanded war in the region and were "eager" to be on the front lines of it.
The #US and #UK militaries launched strikes against multiple areas in #Yemen in an attempt to curb the #Yemeni operations against Israeli and "Israel"-bound ships in the #RedSea, launched with the intent of stopping the Israeli genocidal war on #Gaza, which has killed at least… pic.twitter.com/bBLRk89Y8L
— Al Mayadeen English (@MayadeenEnglish) January 12, 2024
Michael Horton previously wrote in Responsible Statecraft that the YAF attacks in the Red Sea are not only "creating a global shipping crisis" but are also "paying hefty political and even strategic dividends" for the Yemenis. Support has grown in Yemen and other Muslim countries as many now see that Ansar Allah is "standing against Israeli aggression."
Yemeni sources told Horton that not only are Yemeni citizens rushing to join Ansar Allah, but numerous Yemeni businesses and citizens are also contributing to the effort financially, which increases the regional power of the YAF.
Horton expresses that while the US and its friends have enough power to repel the YAF in the short term, he believes such a campaign will need to be sustained for months and be extremely costly to everyone involved. He notes that Ansar Allah are "masters of asymmetric warfare," emphasizing that the group will respond to attacks by possibly targeting Saudi and UAE energy infrastructure, which is one of the reasons why Saudi Arabia did not join the maritime coalition.
Ibrahim Jalal, a Yemeni nonresident scholar at the Middle East Institute, speculated that the strikes could also lead to more support in domestic politics, since the Yemeni people, witnessing a direct confrontation with the US, will have a common foreign enemy.
Meanwhile, House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul (R., Texas) told The Washington Post that the strikes were an attempt to "restore deterrence" against Iran.
Although the US has claimed the strikes have been significant, many observers have questioned whether they have been significant enough.
There will be painful responses to aggression on Yemen: Al-Bukhaiti
Mohammad al-Bukhaiti, a member of the political bureau of the Yemeni Ansar Allah movement, affirmed on Saturday that the battle in Yemen is not against the American or British people but against the "Zionist ruling gang in Washington and London," adding that the US-UK decision is not in favor of either country.
Speaking to Al Mayadeen, al-Bukhaiti addressed both the American and British sides, saying, "You need to reconsider your calculations and learn from past experiences," emphasizing that the United States and Britain "made a mistake in waging war on Yemen."
He also underlined that Yemen has put a set of targets that depend on the US escalation and international stances and that there will be painful responses. Al-Bukhaiti noted that the Yemeni Armed Forces previously only targeted maritime navigation associated with the Zionist entity.
The American-British aggression on Yemen violates all international laws and is "unjustified", the leader of the Ansar Allah Movement's Supreme Political Council, Mahdi al-Mashat emphasized on Friday.
Al-Mashat stressed that the United States and the United Kingdom would "pay a heavy price" for the attack which encompassed 73 strikes on various Yemeni Governates, including the capital Sanaa.
Mohammed Albasha, senior Yemen researcher at the Virginia-based research company Navanti Group, stated that as the aftermath of the strikes unfolded, first social media evaluations indicated further explosions. That suggests weapons explosion at specific locations, maybe including caverns and tunnel networks created by previous Yemeni governments.
He called the impact of the US strikes "short-term" due to the YAF's "adaptability and quick recovery demonstrated throughout the prolonged conflict."
Farea al-Muslimi, a Yemen specialist at Chatham House, stated that the strikes were mostly symbolic in nature, adding that the sites are "really only peanuts" in the military capabilities of Ansar Allah, particularly their maritime weapons.
“They are savvier, more prepared, and more equipped than anyone is really acknowledging.”
Meanwhile, The Times reported that the threats from Ansar Allah after the strikes against them took place only indicate that they are completely "undeterred from attacking ships in the Red Sea."
One former senior defense figure stated that he did not believe the group would take warnings seriously, and they would "even step up the attacks on the shipping.”
In a related context, officials noted that the lack of participation from France and Italy "exposed cracks" in the international community's response to the attacks.
