How a Gaza invasion will prove disastrous for 'Israel'
5 Min Read
Marc Lynch emphasizes that an invasion will not have humanitarian, moral, and strategic consequences with "unfathomable human costs," but will most importantly threaten US interests in the Middle East, Ukraine, and China.
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Israel’s PM Benjamin Netanyahu listens to US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, "Tel Aviv", Oct. 12, 2023 (AP)
According to Marc Lynch, a Foreign Affairs contributor, while "Israel" has been hyping up a full-scale invasion of Gaza, now is the time for the US to "save 'Israel' from itself."
The US needs to support the Israeli occupation, no ands, ifs, or buts, former US President George W Bush told Axios on Friday as the Israeli occupation prepares for an onslaught of terror against the people of the Gaza Strip.
Bush said the US "should" get involved and called Operation Al-Aqsa Flood an "unprovoked attack" that he said was carried out by "terrorist people" to "kill innocent people," completely disregarding the drive behind the operation that constituted a revolt in the face of the Israeli occupation that has been ravaging Gaza for so long.
A recent report by Bloomberg shows that the Biden administration is worried that "Israel" is shortsightedly fixated on invading Gaza and has no robust plan that would grant it a sustainable solution.
Lynch emphasizes that an invasion will not only have humanitarian, moral, and strategic consequences with "unfathomable human costs," but will most importantly threaten US interests in the Middle East, Ukraine, and China.
He argues that only the current administration can stop the invasion and demand the Israeli occupation comply with international law, underlining how Israeli aggressions in 2008, 2014, and 2021 when they killed thousands of Palestinians in an attempt to weaken Hamas did anything but that.
"Israeli leaders had come to think the status quo could last indefinitely."
Lynch also speculates that an incumbent Saudi-Israeli normalization deal may have accelerated the pace at which it decided to strike, in addition to a divided Israeli settler community following Netanyahu's judicial reforms.
Read more: KSA puts Israeli normalization deal on ice amid war on Gaza: Reuters
He explains a crucial point that Gazans do not see "Israel's" call to evacuate as "humanitarian", but rather a blatant expression of their intention to execute another Nakba, especially that the people who did head south were struck by Israeli raids.
Lynch notes that "they do not believe—nor should they believe—that they will be allowed to return to Gaza after the fighting," making an alleged humanitarian corridor futile as it will only exacerbate the forced displacement of Gazans.
Repercussions for the US
Not only does Lynch believe Hamas anticipated an Israeli invasion, but he notes that "Israel" will suffer numerous casualties since they have not been involved in any similar combat in years, in addition to emphasizing that the longer the war drags on, the longer "Israel's" reputation will be tarnished.
In the best case, "Israel" will have to (cluelessly) govern Gaza amid a population that has even more resentment and hostility toward the Israeli occupation than ever before.
In the worst case, the war will branch out to the West Bank, where frustrated Palestinians may jump the wagon to engage in warfare with Israelis over their years of encroachment on their land and violent provocations from settlers.
Lynch argues that "not since the American invasion of Iraq has there been such clarity about the fiasco to come."
He warns that Arab states like Saudi Arabia will distance themselves further from the US due to its blind backing of "Israel" and that this is not the only worry Washington should have. Washington reportedly urged Riyadh this week to condemn Operation Al-Aqsa Flood, launched by Hamas on October 7, but Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan declined this request.
The most frightening consequence, according to Lynch, is the involvement of Hezbollah in the war, although the US and "Israel" have attempted to deter the Lebanese Resistance group from a confrontation with "Israel". However, further escalation and a possible invasion of Gaza may force Hezbollah to join, along with its "formidable arsenal of missiles."
Read next: 'Israel' not interested in war with Hezbollah: Gallant
In addition, the US and Israeli politicians calling for an attack on Iran do not consider the "enormous risks" that accompany such a stance. In general, Lynch concludes that all those pushing for an invasion into Gaza "with maximalist goals" are pushing "Israel" into a "strategic and political catastrophe" that will not only be evident with Palestinian and Israeli deaths but also a mass forced displacement of Palestinians.
Most importantly, Lynch points to the fact that the objective of such a conquest, beyond simple revenge, is "remarkably low".
