Pentagon voices pessimism over Ukraine's progress: The Economist
5 Min Read
The Pentagon is on the edge on whether Ukraine will fare well or suffer terribly on the frontlines with Russia over the coming months.
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A soldier of Ukraine's 3rd Separate Assault Brigade jumps in a trench under the shelling near Bakhmut, the site of fierce battles with the Russian forces in the Donetsk region, on Sept. 4, 2023 (AP)
Ukraine's counteroffensive against Russia, which had been slow for three months, is gaining momentum as Ukrainian troops breach Russia's defensive lines, namely near the village of Robotyne.
The director of analysis for the US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), Trent Maul, notes the significant breakthrough on the second defensive line and expresses cautious optimism about Ukraine's progress in an exclusive interview for The Economist.
"Had we had this conversation two weeks ago, I would have been slightly more pessimistic," Maul said. "Their breakthrough on that second defensive belt…is actually pretty considerable."
The DIA's role is to assess the military capabilities of America's adversaries, which includes understanding their will to fight. Maul acknowledges past misjudgments, such as the rapid fall of American-built armies in Iraq in 2014 and Afghanistan in 2021.
Check out: How much aid has the US sent to Ukraine?
"We thought the Afghans would fight until the end of the calendar year and try to have a heroic defense of Kabul," Maul admitted, which led Washington to misjudge how Ukraine would fare out against Russia.
To avoid similar errors, the DIA has reevaluated how it measures a country's will to fight, emphasizing factors like leadership, esprit de corps, command and control, and logistical support. These factors, he explained, had been neglected when assessing Ukraine's ability to fight against Russia.
The DIA, seemingly paranoid, is closely monitoring Russia's ability to maintain ammunition supplies and local leadership on the front lines. While 80% of Russia's efforts went into the first two defensive lines, most reinforcements are concentrated on the third line. Ukraine has not made it past the first line yet.
There have been disagreements between American officials and Ukrainian commanders regarding military strategy, but Maul suggested that tactics are open to debate. The critical variables affecting Ukraine's offensive are its ammunition stockpile and worsening autumn weather.
Some believe that Ukraine has around six to seven weeks of combat left before its offensive culminates, and the quality of both Russian and Ukrainian forces is declining over time.
However, Maul is somewhat more optimistic, suggesting a 40-50% probability that Ukraine could break the remaining Russian lines by the end of the year, though limited ammunition and adverse weather make this task extremely challenging.
Despite that, a senior US official stressed that "if you look at the battlefield in five years' time, it could look broadly similar."
For now, attention is shifting to the next round of fighting, as the DIA, even without a breakthrough in the coming months, believes that Ukraine can widen the salient around Robotyne while holding its positions, which will give it some help when it comes to the next push.
Some reports claim that the Ukrainian counteroffensive has been moving along more quickly lately and achieved some notable victories. The White House's spokesperson, John Kirby, lauded the Ukrainian troops' "notable progress" during the previous 72 hours in a southern offensive near the Zaporizhzhia area after they allegedly took over the village of Robotyne last week.
Read next: Ukraine’s counteroffensive is 'running back into stalemate': Reports
Oleksandr Tarnavskiy, a brigadier general in the Ukrainian army, claimed over the weekend that his nation's forces had successfully breached Russia's first defensive line near Zaporizhzhia and that Moscow had only devoted 20% of its time and resources to each of the second and third lines
While the recent news seems to be in favor of Ukraine, it appears that its supporters are working on keeping expectations in check rather than boosting them.
The counterattack by Ukraine has been moving slowly for a variety of reasons, not the least of which is the size of the task. Former British general Sir Richard Barrons pointed out that progress has been made in the south this summer, but there are still 55 miles to go before Ukraine reaches its much-touted aim of reaching the Sea of Azov and severing the land bridge to Crimea.
The well-established and extensive network of Russian defenses, including minefields, anti-tank ditches, and "Dragon's Teeth" barricades, have also forced Ukrainian forces to engage in combat, UnHerd reported.
Oleksii Reznikov, the recently ousted defense minister of Ukraine, lamented the presence of up to five Russian mines per square meter of land. This has considerably slowed down Ukrainian forces' advancement; according to Tarnavskiy, minefields have been impeding Ukrainian forces for weeks as infantry sappers tried to clear an attack route on foot while Russian forces used drones and shells to target vehicles.
That is prior to discussing difficulties with the availability of ammunition and training. The US won't begin training F-16 fighter jet pilots until October, and according to Troels Poulsen, the acting defense minister of Denmark, Ukraine won't see results until the beginning of next year.
Ukrainian soldiers have reported crippling disconnects between NATO drills and the realities of the front lines, despite the fact that 63,000 of their soldiers have participated in training in NATO countries due to time constraints.
It is worth noting that despite the fact that Ukraine's counteroffensive is moving more slowly than anticipated, Ukraine continues to reject the option of freezing the battle.
