Republicans expected to flood the House

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Polling, spending trends, and meetings with top Democratic and Republican strategists indicate that House Republicans are now quite likely to reclaim the majority on Nov. 8 with more than 20 House seats — a figure that was formerly considered the upper bound of most analysts' estimates.

Two weeks before the midterm elections, evidence points to a resurgent red tsunami that might sweep the GOP into control of both chambers. Republicans in the Senate are increasingly confident that they will retake the majority by gaining at least one seat.

According to Axios, this is important because the course of all battlefield elections is shaped by the national political environment, which means that a large enough wave might reach some of the bluest districts.

There's also a chance it washes in flailing Republican Senate hopefuls in Georgia and Arizona, despite their lackluster campaigns against battle-tested Democratic incumbents.

The factor that led to this is inflation, and abortion may have peaked too soon as a motivating issue to give Democrats a maximum boost in November. The late timing of the rebound in gas prices, on the other hand, provides additional wind in the GOP's sails.

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Biden delivered a speech on Tuesday in which he promised to codify Roe as his first act if Democrats win more senators and preserve control of the House. However, Democrats are concerned that abortion-focused messaging is preventing candidates from discussing the economy.

63% of respondents, including 36% of Democrats, want Biden to pay greater attention to "topics that are essential to your family," according to a new Monmouth survey.

Eyes are on the newest public polls, which show Republicans leading on the generic ballot. Republicans had a six-point lead among registered voters (50%-44%), with more Republicans "very eager" to vote (64%) than Democrats (59%), according to the Monmouth poll, Axios reported.

In a Pennsylvania Senate poll done this month for the AARP by Biden pollster John Anzalone and Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio, Democrat John Fetterman's lead over Republican Mehmet Oz shrunk to a statistical tie. Oz now has a seven-point lead among independents.

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The House editor of the Cook Political Report, David Wasserman, warned this week that several of the 15 Democrats in "lean Democratic" seats are "teetering on the edge." This is on top of the 30 Democratic-held seats that are already in "toss-up" or worse territory.

Wasserman mentioned House Democrats' campaign head Sean Patrick Maloney (D-NY) and progressive star Katie Porter (D-CA) as two prominent Democrats in peril, both of whom are in double-digit Biden districts.

The Democrats are allocating ways to defend candidates in safe blue districts. The Democrats' House Majority PAC transferred last Monday funding from an Oregon district won by Biden by nine points to a suburban Portland seat won by Biden by 13 points. 

One national Democratic official told Axios that they are "very pessimistic" about Oregon Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner after she defeated moderate Rep. Kurt Schrader (D-Ore.) in the primary. Schrader was re-elected by a six-point margin in 2020.

"We’re still winning independent women but not by much," said one Democratic strategist involved in top congressional races. "Six weeks ago, we were winning them by double-digits. Now it's close to 50-50."

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Axios explained that the information reveals Biden's intentions to stay away from big campaign rallies for Democrats with Senator Bernie Sanders as a top Democratic closer in Nevada,  Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Sanders' rallies may help turn out younger progressives — but it could come at the cost of alienating some swing voters.

Far-right Senate contenders continue to stymie the GOP. The Mitch McConnell-aligned Senate Leadership Fund stated Friday that it would redirect $5.6 million planned for Republican Don Bolduc in New Hampshire to other Senate battlegrounds, according to an SLF spokeswoman, Axios reported.